Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Tuesday's Results

Sorry for the late reaction to last night's numbers.  School is a killer right now.

Here's a quick break down on the results from yesterday.  We had a total of 12 counties report results:  Yakima didn't report (although they posted new numbers this morning), and Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, and Klickitat updated their numbers unexpectedly:

Wiggins picked up 2,867 less votes than expected.  The quick answer is that Yakima didn't report, and King County reported far fewer ballots yesterday that we were expecting (49,017 instead of 71,915).  Of course, this is readily explainable if the ballots now being worked through are the more problematic ones (incorrectly filled out, write-in votes, voter affidavits, etc). 

But it's got me thinking that there's definitely some useful data in here about the speed at which different counties are working their way though the EBOH pile.  Some have been very quick, some have started fast and slowed down, and others appear to be pretty uniform.  Once the speed of the daily returns slows down, I'll probably take some time to look at that data and see if there are some discernable trends that can be modeled for the 2012 election to predict return data.

In the last column, I compared the SMOV% from yesterday to the "progressive" SMOV% model that I've been using so far to see how the results different from expected.  The 12% number in Klickitat might raise some eyebrows... but we are only talking about 74 votes, so I think we can write that off to statistical insignificance.

The Pierce number is a little misleading.  The progressive model that I've been using still has Pierce's SMOV% at 54.73%, which is based on their total from last Thursday.  There haven't been enough ballots counted on each of the successive days (10% of total) to shift that number more towards Wiggins.   But over the four following days of returns (Friday, Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday), the SMOV% has stayed pretty consistent, between 52.27% and 53.06%.  With 53.03% yesterday, Pierce continues to show the same ~2% shift toward Wiggins that nearly every other county experienced, but that trend has stabilized.  Makes me think that the progressive SMOV% model really needs to give more credit to several days of stability, as opposed to an early lump-sum number.

The shift in King County's SMOV% is interesting, but relatively insignificant.  King was at 38.32% on Monday.  Yesterday, at 38.51% (+0.19), King has reversed what was otherwise several straight days of declinining numbers.  In practical terms, this 0.19% increase moved about 64 votes from Wiggins over to Sanders.  It'll be interesting to see where the SMOV% moves in today's results -- which should be posted shortly.

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