Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Bad math in Grays Harbor

I'll post shortly on the results from yesterday, how they lined up with expectations, and what we can expect today in terms of the vote margin.  But as I was looking through the numbers, something caught my eye.  There's some unexplained discrepancies in yesterday's vote totals from Grays Harbor.

First off - a disclaimer.  I've double and triple-checked these numbers, but it's always possible that I've made a mistake.  I don't think I have, but feel free to let me know if you see it differently.

Looking back to Monday, Grays Harbor reported the following totals:
Total Ballots Counted:    25,642
Votes Cast in Race (VCR):   19,702 (76.83%)
Votes Cast for Sanders (SMOV%):  9,922 (50.44%)
Votes Cast for Wiggins: 9,780

Yesterday, Grays Harbor reported new totals:
Total Ballots Counted:    25,884
Votes Cast in Race (VCR):   20,054 (77.48%)
Votes Cast for Sanders (SMOV%):  10,105 (50.44%)
Votes Cast for Wiggins: 9,949

Some quick math reveals that Grays Harbor (which is not located next to Chicago, incidentally) counted 242 ballots yesterday, and reported 352 new votes in the Sanders-Wiggins race. 

So where did those 110 extra ballots come from?

The 352 new votes yesterday reflected an SMOV of 51.99%  This is slightly above the overall 50.36% average that Grays Harbor had been reporting until yesterday, and reflects an definite upward tick:  Friday's SMOV% was 49.02% and Monday's was 50.44%.

Evil, election-throwing scheme?  :-)  Minor tabulation error from Monday or last week that someone finally noticed and corrected?  What do you think?

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