Monday, November 8, 2010

Early thoughts on Monday

I'm still frantically writing Excel formulas and typing results (and trying not to transpose digits as I do it).  But I thought I'd pause and share some early thoughts on the Monday numbers so far.

As I type this, 13 of 19 counties have reported for the day (including Grant - welcome back!).  We're still waiting on Cowlitz, Franklin, Island, Kitsap, Skagit, and Whatcom.  Kitsap will certainly help Wiggins, but the rest are Sanders counties, some by fairly substantial percentages.  So I wouldn't expect the lead to shift by more than a couple hundred votes for the rest of the night.

Here's some first thoughts, without much analysis:

1. King reported counting slightly fewer ballots than I expected, but they also added about 10,000 to their EBOH.  The VCR fell to 68.1% (-0.9%) -- not good for Wiggins -- but the SMOV fell by the same margin (39.2% to 38.3%).  I expected Sanders Wiggins [that's what happens when you try to type and think at the same time] to pick up about 11,025 votes today from King, and he picked up 11,448.

2.  Pierce reported counting slightly fewer ballots than I expected as well (8,129 instead of 10,800), but Snohomish was WAY lower (8,285 instead of 24,000).  Both counties saw a drop in SMOV, which helps Wiggins, and both produced a smaller net gain (+388 on the reduced ballot count, compared to +915 projected) for Sanders than he was probably anticipating.

3.  Spokane counted a little less than half as many ballots as we should have expected (5,274 against the expected 11,111).  SMOV remained fairly steady at 53.8%, but VCR climbed 2.5% (from 71.4% to 73.9%).  If the numbers had remained constant, the reduced vote count should have produced 285 net new votes, but instead, Sanders received 297.

4.  Yakima underperformed for Sanders.  He needed the county to pull through, and it didn't do as well as he could have hoped.  There were drops in both VCR (81.4% to 79.2%, or 2.2%), and in SMOV (60.1% to 58.9%, or 1.2%).  Yakima counted about 145% of the ballots we were expecting today (9,236 compared to a projected 6,370), but Sanders only saw a 124% gain in his net margin (+1305 net new votes instead of +1049).  However, Yakima is reporting another 6,000 EBOH -- these new 5,200 ballots will absolutely impact the projections.

More soon.  Stay tuned.

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