Just The Numbers: Behind Sanders-Wiggins 2010: Early thoughts on Monday

Monday, November 8, 2010

Early thoughts on Monday

I'm still frantically writing Excel formulas and typing results (and trying not to transpose digits as I do it). But I thought I'd pause and share some early thoughts on the Monday numbers so far.

As I type this, 13 of 19 counties have reported for the day (including Grant - welcome back!). We're still waiting on Cowlitz, Franklin, Island, Kitsap, Skagit, and Whatcom. Kitsap will certainly help Wiggins, but the rest are Sanders counties, some by fairly substantial percentages. So I wouldn't expect the lead to shift by more than a couple hundred votes for the rest of the night.

Here's some first thoughts, without much analysis:

1. King reported counting slightly fewer ballots than I expected, but they also added about 10,000 to their EBOH. The VCR fell to 68.1% (-0.9%) -- not good for Wiggins -- but the SMOV fell by the same margin (39.2% to 38.3%). I expected ~~Sanders~~ Wiggins [that's what happens when you try to type and think at the same time] to pick up about 11,025 votes today from King, and he picked up 11,448.

2. Pierce reported counting slightly fewer ballots than I expected as well (8,129 instead of 10,800), but Snohomish was WAY lower (8,285 instead of 24,000). Both counties saw a drop in SMOV, which helps Wiggins, and both produced a smaller net gain (+388 on the reduced ballot count, compared to +915 projected) for Sanders than he was probably anticipating.

3. Spokane counted a little less than half as many ballots as we should have expected (5,274 against the expected 11,111). SMOV remained fairly steady at 53.8%, but VCR climbed 2.5% (from 71.4% to 73.9%). If the numbers had remained constant, the reduced vote count should have produced 285 net new votes, but instead, Sanders received 297.

4. Yakima underperformed for Sanders. He needed the county to pull through, and it didn't do as well as he could have hoped. There were drops in both VCR (81.4% to 79.2%, or 2.2%), and in SMOV (60.1% to 58.9%, or 1.2%). Yakima counted about 145% of the ballots we were expecting today (9,236 compared to a projected 6,370), but Sanders only saw a 124% gain in his net margin (+1305 net new votes instead of +1049). However, Yakima is reporting another 6,000 EBOH -- these new 5,200 ballots will absolutely impact the projections.

More soon. Stay tuned.

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Terminology

The Terminology post is quickly working its way down the page, so here it is, reproduced at the top, for all time. A quick introduction to the terminology I use on this blog:

SMOV: Sanders Margin of Victory (%). Within a defined universe of ballots (say, one particular county's ballots on one particular day), it refers to the percentage of ballots cast for Sanders. [Ed. Note: I'm not expressing an ideological preference: as of this posting, Justice Sanders is leading the race; and using the leading candidate makes the math easier.] Accordingly, a SMOV of 51% means that if 100 ballots were cast, Sanders received 51 and Wiggins received 49.

VCR: Votes Cast in Race (# or %). Not every ballot contains a vote for Sanders or Wiggins. Indeed, on average so far, just under 77% of all ballots cast have contained a vote for either candidate. Some voters may have chosen to write in a candidate -- it's even possible that they may have chosen to write in Sanders or Wiggins, which creates some interesting possibilities (which may be explored in a later blog post). But largely, it's because people chose not to vote in this particular race. They may have been single-issue voters (i.e. the U.S. Senate race), or they may have only cared about the initiatives; I have several friends who only cared about I-1100 and I-1105. Or they may have just stopped at the first page and decided to go do something else. Either way, the VCR% plays a big role in our analysis.

EBOH: Estimated Ballots on Hand (#). This refers to the number of ballots that each county is estimating still remains to be counted. EBOH x VCR% would yield the total number of votes that still remain to be allocated between the two candidates. Note that EBOH is not a static number. Each day in which votes are counted should result in a net decreate in the EBOH total, as votes from that category are counted and allocated to the candidates. However, some ballots may be disqualified for any number of reasons; further, disqualified ballots may be later added back to the EBOH pile if they are later verified by affidavit. Furthermore, ballots may still be arriving, which would increase the EBOH total. Although most of these ballots will be disqualified for being postmarked after election day, some may be from overseas military voters or may be correctly postmarked and will be counted.

SAND or WIGG: I sometimes refer to the candidates as SAND (Sanders) or WIGG (Wiggins) for short. I intend no disrespect.

KPS: A reference to King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties, the three largest counties in Washington in terms of registered voters. There are 3,601,152 registered voters (as of Election Day 2010) in Washington; King has 1,069,791 (29.71%), Pierce has 410,081 (11.39%); and Snohomish has 377,739 (10.49%), for a total of 51.58% of all registered voters in Washington.

KPSS: Same as KPS, but add Spokane county; it has 261, 250 (7.25%). KPSS together has 58.84% of the total registered voters in Washington.

KPSSCTKW, or THE BIG EIGHT: Yes, this probably seems a little ridiculous, but stay with me. Same as KPSS, but now add the counties of Clark (219,616, 6.10%), Thurston (149,024, 4.14%), Kitsap (143,796, 3.99%), and Whatcom (116,576, 3.24%). The Big Eight are the counties with over 100,000 registered voters each, and together, they comprise 76.31% of the total registered voters in Washington. [Ed. Note: Yakima is very close to joining this club at 99,568; sorry Yakimanians, I had to draw the line somewhere. Go sign up 432 more voters, and you're in! (next time)]