Monday, November 8, 2010

Monday: Projected Vote Totals

Nineteen counties will report updated vote totals, with the bulk of the new numbers coming betwee 4:00-5:00pm (Whatcom reports at 5:30, Spokane at 6:00).  And yes, I'm including Grant County.

Before we get to projecting new totals for today, let's start with some basic assumptions:

1.  Most of the nineteen counties will report the same number of net new ballots today as they did on Friday.  However, when that would put a county near or over the amount of EBOH -- or if the county did not report on Friday -- we will assume that the county will only count 80% of it's remaining ballots on hand.  Yes, this is a guess, but it's based on the concept that there will always be a pile of ballots that require hand counting, visual inspection, re-completion (if voter intent is discernable), or some other manual handling.  Also, there will undoubtedly be ballots that will be shelved for signature mis-matches, voter cast two ballots (duplication), or a host of other reasons.  Because these ballots are set aside -- but are possibly still factored into the EBOH count, depending on each county's policies -- this count dwindles downward very slowly while the ready-to-count ballots are quickly zero'd out.  Think of it as a curve approaching zero but taking a really long time to get there.

2.  The overall county average thus far for SMOV and VCR will be used for each county UNLESS the county reported data on Friday or Saturday AND the Friday/Saturday totals contained at least 500 ballots and at least 10% of the total ballots cast in the race.  These qualifiers are added to ensure we are using numbers of a statististically significant sample size.   [Note:  When I use overall SMOV/VCR percentages, I will indicate it with a (T); when I use Friday or Saturday SMOV/VCR data, I will indicate it with a (F) or (S)]

On to the numbers.

Rather than try and type this all out, I took a screenshot of my projections for today and I'm attaching it to this post.  That way, you all can see the numbers I used (and challenge any assumptions I made accordingly).

[EDIT:  I accidentally left Clallam county off the original chart above (sorry Clallam!)  I've updated the graph and changed the numbers in the below paragraph to reflect the +191 net votes that Clallam is expected to provide to Wiggins today.]
It's very hard to predict how many ballots will actually be counted today, but using the estimates above, I'm predicting that we'll see another 175,052 ballots counted and 128,316 votes cast in the race.  I expect Wiggins to pick up a net of 8,470 votes, reducing Sanders's lead to 4,781 votes total.

Stay tuned.  I'll be posting frequently as individual counties start releasing updates at 4pm.


  1. Your chart is so superior to mine. I'm a little embarrassed.

    BUT - My models project a Sanders lead at the end of the day of 4-6k, so we are, so far, in a similar position.

    Baited breath, my worthy opponent, baited breath.

  2. KC numbers created a drastic hit.

    Sanders needed to be about 6k up after KC drop (then 8k at the end of the day) to pull it off.

    There is now no statistical model that gives Sanders a win.