Monday, November 8, 2010

Wiggins picking up votes from strange places...

Kitsap and Island county just posted.  Kitsap counted under 25% of the ballots that I was expecting them to count today (2,720 instead of 11,200), so that obviously adjusts the math somewhat.

But  Wiggins actually gained net votes out of Island county.  Island had been going for Sanders, barely (SMOV of 50.9%).  Today, Wiggins netted 12 new votes, and the SMOV fell to 29.74%. 

If that were an isolated occurrence, I'd be prepared to write it off.  But the SMOV unexpectedly swung to favor Wiggins in several other counties:

Expected:  SMOV of 52.4%, expected to produce 50 +SAND on 1400 new votes.
Actual:  SMOV of 46.22% (-6.2%!), produced 44 +WIGG on 813 new votes.

Expected:  SMOV of 57.6%, expected to produce 45 +SAND on 408 new votes.
Actual:  SMOV of 49.72% (-8.4%!!), produced 2 +WIGG on 523 new votes.

Pend Oreille
Expected:  SMOV of 55.3%, expected to produce 14 +SAND on 192 new votes.
Actual:  SMOV of 45.74% (-9.6%!!!), produced 11 +WIGG on 173 new votes.

Expected:  SMOV of 51.6%, expected to produce 18 +SAND on 800 new votes.
Actual:  SMOV of 48.56% (-3.0%), produced 36 +WIGG on 1724 new votes.

Obviously, we're dealing with a pretty small number of votes.  So I would expect to see major swings on these smaller sample sizes.  But it's hard to ignore that Wiggins seems to be gaining late ground in many counties that were solidly in the Sanders column.

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