As of Friday, King had reported 195,000 votes on hand; nevertheless, VCR and SMOV rates [see

*Terminology*post] have both been changing, which could dramatically affect the outcome. Take a look:

Through Nov. 4, King had a VCR of 74.92% and a SMOV of 42.65%, based on total ballots cast/votes counted. Combining those numbers with the remaining 195,000 ballots, we get:

195,000 ballots * VCR (74.92%) = 146,094 votes.

146,094 votes * SMOV (42.65%) =

**62,309 +SAND**&

**83,784 +WIGG**

= a net gain of

__21, 475__votes for Wiggins.

BUT...

On Nov. 5, King's SMOV dropped to 39.24% (good for Wiggins); however, the VCR also dropped to 68.96% (bad for Wiggins). Using these numbers with the remaining 195,000 ballots, we get:

195,000 ballots * VCR (68.98%) = 134,511 votes.

134,511 votes * SMOV (39.24%) =

**52,782 +SAND**&

**81,729 +WIGG**

= net gain of

__28,946__votes for Wiggins.

Obviously, the second scenario, using the latest VCR and SMOV numbers from King, is far preferable for Wiggins. But it certainly seems unlikely that future results will exactly mirror what we saw Friday. So let's look at best-case and worst-case scenarios for Wiggins:

__Best Case__(SMOV stays at low Nov. 5 level, VCR returns to Nov. 2-4 avg.)

195,000 ballots * VCR (74.92%) = 146,094 votes.

146,094 votes * SMOV (39.24%) =

**57,327 +SAND**&

**88,766 +WIGG**

**=**net gain of

__31,439__votes for Wiggins.

__Worst Case__(SMOV returns to Nov. 2-4 avg, VCR stays at low Nov. 5 level)

195,000 ballots * VCR (68.98%) = 134,511 votes.

134,511 votes * SMOV (42.65%) =

**57,369 +SAND**&

**77,142 +WIGG**

**=**net gain of

__19,773__votes for Wiggins.

Granted, the best & worst case aren't too far off the projections that would have been made solely based on the Nov. 4 totals or the Nov. 5 net new votes. But a difference of nearly 12,000 votes (between best and worst) is well outside the current margin of victory for Sanders, AND it's outside the commonly-projected 7,000-10,000 vote margin of victory that's being projected for Wiggins.

A difference of 12,000 votes could make all the difference.

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