Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Tuesday Projection

First off, an apology.  My excel sheet locked up and refused to save last night, and I was forced to recreate it from Friday's saved data.  Thankfully, I still had raw numbers for the weekend and for Monday, so no loss in data.  But putting everything back together has been quite time-consuming.
Moving on to today's projection.

Only 10 counties will be reporting data today.  Of the Big Eight [see Terminology in the side bar], only 5 will report numbers today: Thurston, Snohomish, and Spokane won't report again until tomorrow.    We'll be using the same basic assumptions as yesterday:

1.  Counties will count the same number of ballots today as they did yesterday UNLESS that count would put them near or over their total EBOH.  In that case, I am assuming they will count about 80% of EBOH.  Although there was some variation yesterday, this turned out to be a fairly solid guess across the board.

2.  The overall SMOV and VCR for each county will be used UNLESS the county reported data on Friday, Saturday, or Monday AND the county reported counting at least 500 new ballots AND at least 10% of their total ballots counted.  For transparency, I have included a column in the chart below "()" that indicates the source of the VCR and SMOV numbers.  (Ttl) indicates that the county total to date is being used; (F) indicates Friday, (S) indicates Saturday, and (M) indicates Monday.

Here's the projection:

I'm on the verge of calling this race for Wiggins, but with the spreadsheet problems, I haven't had time to fully project out all EBOH remaining in these 10 counties as well as the other 29.   But it's getting very difficult to see a path to victory for the Sanders team.  I'll post shortly with a projected final result.

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