tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3977914183716953558.post5199706694310869995..comments2014-10-20T08:26:16.590-07:00Comments on Just The Numbers: Behind Sanders-Wiggins 2010: Why this race isn't over yet...Jamiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08202550709521192100noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3977914183716953558.post-17968530152890718972010-11-08T10:10:27.084-08:002010-11-08T10:10:27.084-08:00OMG, I'm totally a big fan of your work, and i...OMG, I'm totally a big fan of your work, and it makes me wish I would have added a more complete undervote calculation to my tables. <br /><br />http://www.kingcounty.gov/elections/elections/201011.aspx is the King County one, and there's math involved to get to their actual EBOH. As of Friday, however, they were over 200k following their counts, per a phone call between Sanders and the office. <br /><br />I agree with your thought that the SOS is probably only counting ballots that are ready to be counted, not all ballots received, which makes my 1.5% number higher than it should be, but I'm okay with being conservative. <br /><br />In the end, while I have had the same concerns over Yakima County (in case you can't tell, I'm a Wiggins supporter), the ever-increasing EBOH of King County, even after they drop 75k ballots, counteracts most of that.<br /><br />I can't wait for 7...Snohomish County and their damn delayed reporting!!!Michaelpnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3977914183716953558.post-31173923421220655452010-11-08T09:42:46.913-08:002010-11-08T09:42:46.913-08:00Hey Michaelp,
Thanks for stopping by - I'm a ...Hey Michaelp,<br /><br />Thanks for stopping by - I'm a big fan of your work, by the way.<br /><br />I agree that Wiggins is definitely the beneficiary of the late trend. In fact, without that trend, he wouldn't have a shot (using data only thru Nov. 4th, I had projected the remaining ballots to result in a final margin of 7-8k for Sanders.)<br /><br />Interesting comment about the KC EBOH count being higher than the SOS's count. That could indicate a different methodology used to calculate the #s (i.e. SOS only includes validated ballots ready to be counted and unopened ballots; KC includes ALL ballots, including those that have failed verification or are pending voter affidavit). I must admit, I actually haven't seen the separate KC projection of EBOH - can you post a link?<br /><br />I agree that Sanders's marginal SMOV gains between Nov. 4-5 in Clark, Ferry, Stevens, Wahkiakum, and Yakima are probably not enough to counteract the shifting percentage gains in the other 23 counties. Those five counties only account for 17,783 EBOH. But, Yakima is the real killer. It's 10,000 EBOH (obviously an estimate - I'm always suspicious of round numbers), and his Nov. 5 SMOV was over 60%. I'll definitely be watching the KPSS numbers come in today, but I don't think we can discount Yakima as a potential source for a Sanders resurgence.<br /><br />But, in the end, I agree with you - we'll have a much better idea after 7pm today.Jamiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08202550709521192100noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3977914183716953558.post-2917517399752928782010-11-07T23:05:24.242-08:002010-11-07T23:05:24.242-08:00While I appreciate your calculations and model (it...While I appreciate your calculations and model (it's pretty good), and I probably am crazy for calling this race, the answer will be after tomorrow's count. <br /><br />Plain and simple, if the trend continues, and Sanders is only up in the mid four figures (as my model projects), he is done. <br /><br />One factor to consider, aside from the under-votes (which my model takes into account, just not as detailed as yours) is the total votes outstanding in King County. Currently, the SOS number is below the KC number. Why that is, I confess myself unsure, but if we see another five figure "received" tomorrow, then that will only add to the momentum for Wiggins (most other counties have stopped receiving ballots). <br /><br />If memory serves, currently Sanders is only gaining (percentage wise) in three counties, and by minimal tenths of percentages. Wiggins has managed to increase his performance by 1-2% or more in many counties, including Spokane, Pierce, Snohomish, Whatcom, Skagit, etc. <br /><br />In the end, it is VERY unlikely that Sanders could win, and it would require an increase in his performance in the remaining ballots to be counted, especially in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston and Skagit Counties. Considering the two October stories about his...issues...along with the trend from Tuesday through Saturday, it is politically improbable at best that the trend would reverse itself.Michaelpnoreply@blogger.com